Donald Trump still commands extraordinary loyalty from the core MAGA movement. But new polling shows something different happening around it: Republicans who once overwhelmingly supported the president are increasingly dissatisfied with the economy, the cost of living and the war in Iran.
Donald Trump's political base hasn't disappeared.
But it is getting smaller.
A series of recent national polls shows Trump's support deteriorating not only among independents and other swing voters, but among Republicans themselves.
The decline is particularly pronounced on the issues Americans encounter every day:
Gas.
Groceries.
Inflation.
Interest rates.
And an increasingly expensive war with Iran.
The result is an unusual political picture heading toward the 2026 midterm elections.
Trump's most committed MAGA supporters remain overwhelmingly loyal to him.
But Republicans outside that core are increasingly peeling away.
Republican Approval Falls to 73 Percent
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 17-20 found Trump's overall approval rating at just 32 percent nationally.
That was the lowest level Reuters/Ipsos had recorded across either of Trump's presidencies.
More revealing, however, was what happened among Republicans.
In January, 86 percent of Republicans approved of Trump's performance.
By September, that number had fallen to 73 percent.
Thirteen points disappeared in eight months.
Trump still has the support of a substantial majority of Republicans.
But presidential approval within your own party is normally supposed to be the easy part.
And underneath that overall number, the deterioration is considerably more dramatic.
Republicans Are Sour on the Economy
In January, 80 percent of Republicans approved of Trump's handling of the economy.
Now:
56 percent.
His numbers on the cost of living have fallen even further.
In January, 70 percent of Republicans approved of Trump's handling of living costs.
By September:
44 percent.
That means fewer than half of Republicans surveyed approved of Trump's performance on an issue that directly affects virtually every household in America.
And that's particularly damaging because Trump returned to office promising lower prices.
Voters don't experience inflation through a government spreadsheet.
They experience it at the grocery store.
At the gas pump.
When the electric bill arrives.
When they finance a car.
When they try to buy a house.
Those experiences are becoming increasingly difficult to overcome with political messaging.
Iran Has Created Another Divide
Then there is the war.
Trump spent years presenting himself as the president who would keep America out of unnecessary foreign conflicts.
That message became an important component of MAGA politics.
Many Trump supporters were deeply skeptical of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and hostile toward the Washington foreign-policy establishment that supported them.
Then Trump went to war with Iran.
Polling suggests that decision has opened another fracture inside the Republican coalition.
An August University of Massachusetts Amherst poll found Trump's handling of Iran remained extremely popular among Republicans who identified very strongly with MAGA.
Among that group, 87 percent approved.
But support declined sharply as identification with MAGA weakened.
Among Republicans who considered themselves only “somewhat MAGA,” approval of Trump's handling of Iran fell to 58 percent.
Among Republicans who said they weren't MAGA at all:
Just 30 percent approved.
The divide isn't simply Republican versus Democrat anymore.
Increasingly, it is MAGA Republicans versus everyone else.
The MAGA Core Is Still There
That distinction is important.
It would be inaccurate to say Trump's MAGA base has abandoned him.
It hasn't.
An Economist/YouGov poll found 95 percent of Republicans identifying as MAGA approved of Trump's overall job performance.
That's extraordinary loyalty.
But the same poll found a dramatically different result among Republicans who don't identify with MAGA.
Among those voters, Trump's approval stood at 59 percent, with 40 percent disapproving.
That is still majority support.
But it is nowhere close to the near-unanimous loyalty Trump receives from MAGA Republicans.
And even among MAGA voters, enthusiasm isn't identical across every issue.
Support was weaker for Trump's handling of tariffs, Iran and foreign policy than for his presidency overall.
Only about a quarter strongly approved of Trump having personal cryptocurrency investments while president or of Trump and his family conducting business with foreign countries while he holds office.
The MAGA base remains loyal to Donald Trump.
That doesn't mean it approves of everything Donald Trump does.
The Coalition That Elected Trump Was Bigger Than MAGA
This is where Trump's current political problem becomes clearer.
Trump didn't return to the White House in 2024 with MAGA voters alone.
He expanded his coalition.
He improved substantially among Latino voters.
He attracted working-class voters.
He won people primarily concerned about inflation and the economy.
He benefited from frustration with the Biden administration.
Some of those voters were enthusiastic Trump supporters.
Others weren't.
They simply preferred him to the alternative.
Those are precisely the voters Trump now risks losing.
Recent polling of Latino voters provides one example.
A September survey of Latino registered voters across seven battleground states found Democrats leading Republicans 56 percent to 29 percent on the congressional ballot.
That doesn't mean Latino voters have permanently returned to Democrats.
But it demonstrates how quickly some of the Republican gains from 2024 can move in the opposite direction.
The same thing can happen among Republicans who supported Trump without becoming committed members of the MAGA movement.
The Cost of Living Is Difficult to Spin
Trump can argue that his economic policies will eventually produce better results.
The White House can point to investment, employment, border enforcement and other accomplishments.
But presidents have always faced one political reality they cannot easily escape:
People know what things cost.
Reuters/Ipsos found Republican approval of Trump's handling of the cost of living collapsing from 70 percent to 44 percent.
That's not a Democratic talking point.
Those are Republicans.
And it demonstrates the political danger of telling voters the economy is doing well when their own household finances tell them something different.
A voter may support Trump on immigration.
They may support him on border security.
They may approve of his judicial appointments.
They may still vote Republican.
And they can simultaneously believe he isn't delivering on the economy.
Political coalitions don't always collapse because voters suddenly switch parties.
Sometimes they simply become less enthusiastic.
They stop defending the president.
They stop donating.
They stop showing up.
MAGA Is Becoming the Last Line of Defense
Trump still possesses something most politicians would envy:
An extraordinarily loyal political movement.
MAGA hasn't abandoned him.
His strongest supporters remain overwhelmingly supportive.
But the concentric circles surrounding that movement are beginning to look different.
First came independents.
Then softer Trump voters.
Now measurable dissatisfaction is appearing among Republicans themselves.
The closer someone identifies with MAGA, the stronger Trump's support remains.
The farther away they move from that identity, the faster his numbers deteriorate.
That may ultimately be the most important political development heading into the midterms.
Donald Trump hasn't lost MAGA.
But increasingly, MAGA may be what he has left.