Donald Trump made American homebuyers a remarkably specific promise while campaigning for president in 2024.
Mortgage rates were going down.
Way down.
“We’re going to get them back down to, we think, 3%, maybe even lower than that,” Trump told the Economic Club of New York in September 2024.
Trump said dramatically lower borrowing costs would save homebuyers thousands of dollars every year and help young Americans once again afford the American Dream.
Nearly two years later, the numbers are moving in the opposite direction.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached 7.28% on October 1, 2026, according to Freddie Mac.
That's up from 7.03% just one week earlier.
It's up from 6.34% one year ago.
And it's the highest average mortgage rate recorded since Trump returned to the White House.
From 3% to 7.28%
Trump's original promise wasn't vague.
During his September 5, 2024 appearance at the Economic Club of New York, Trump argued that controlling inflation would cause interest rates to fall dramatically.
He specifically predicted mortgage rates could return to approximately 3%.
At the time, Trump connected that promise directly to housing affordability.
Lower mortgage rates, he argued, would allow younger Americans to purchase homes again.
That hasn't happened.
When Trump returned to office in January 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage was approximately 7%.
Freddie Mac reported an average rate of 6.96% during the week of January 23, 2025.
Twenty months later, it is 7.28%.
Rather than falling toward 3%, mortgage rates are now slightly higher than when Trump's second presidency began.
The Biggest Weekly Jump in Four Years
The latest increase wasn't small.
The average 30-year mortgage jumped from 7.03% to 7.28% in a single week.
According to Freddie Mac, that's the largest weekly increase in approximately four years.
It's also the sixth consecutive week mortgage rates have increased.
The 15-year fixed mortgage climbed as well, reaching 6.60%, compared with 5.55% one year ago.
The result is another blow to Americans already struggling with housing affordability.
Mortgage applications fell 6% during the most recent reporting week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Purchase applications fell 4%.
Refinancing applications dropped 9%.
Borrowers are increasingly moving toward adjustable-rate mortgages in an attempt to escape the higher fixed rates.
What 7.28% Actually Means
Percentages don't always demonstrate the real-world impact.
Monthly payments do.
Consider someone borrowing $400,000 with a 30-year fixed mortgage.
At the 3% rate Trump talked about during the campaign, the principal-and-interest payment would be approximately:
$1,686 per month.
At 7.28%, that same $400,000 mortgage costs approximately:
$2,738 per month.
That's roughly $1,050 more every month.
More than $12,600 every year.
And that doesn't include property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA fees or mortgage insurance.
For many families, the difference isn't simply inconvenient.
It can determine whether they qualify for the mortgage at all.
Why Mortgage Rates Are Rising
Presidents don't directly set mortgage rates.
Neither does the Federal Reserve.
Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the bond market, particularly yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities.
Those yields have surged.
The 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to levels not seen in decades as investors reacted to persistent inflation, stronger-than-expected economic growth and expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to maintain tighter monetary policy.
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Another factor has emerged during 2026.
The war with Iran sent global energy prices sharply higher, contributing additional inflationary pressure.
According to Reuters, mortgage rates have risen by more than 1.2 percentage points during the seven months since the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran.
Higher inflation expectations generally push bond yields upward.
Higher Treasury yields tend to push mortgage rates upward with them.
Can Trump Simply Order Rates Lower?
No.
That's one of the problems with presidential promises about mortgage rates.
The president doesn't determine the interest rate a bank charges someone buying a house.
The Federal Reserve controls a short-term benchmark interest rate, but even the Fed doesn't directly set 30-year mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates are determined through financial markets.
Investors consider inflation.
They consider economic growth.
They consider federal borrowing.
They consider government debt.
They consider geopolitical risk.
They consider what the Federal Reserve might do next.
And lenders price mortgages accordingly.
A president can influence some of those underlying conditions through fiscal, trade, regulatory and economic policies.
But there is no switch in the Oval Office labeled “Mortgage Rates.”
Economists Are Watching the Wrong Kind of 3%
Trump's old 3% prediction resurfaced this week after mortgage rates reached 7.28%.
Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, responded with an observation that captured just how much circumstances have changed.
He said he would be “extremely concerned” if someone told him mortgage rates were now headed toward 3%.
His point wasn't that inexpensive mortgages are inherently bad.
It's that a sudden collapse in borrowing rates from more than 7% toward 3% would likely require an enormous economic shock.
Rates that low emerged during the COVID era partly because the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates near zero and purchased enormous quantities of bonds while the economy faced an unprecedented emergency.
Returning there quickly today could signal something much more serious than an ordinary improvement in housing affordability.
Homebuyers Are Getting Squeezed
The mortgage-rate problem is especially painful because Americans aren't simply dealing with expensive financing.
They're financing expensive houses.
Home prices increased dramatically during and after the pandemic.
Millions of existing homeowners also refinanced when mortgage rates were near historic lows.
Many now have mortgages carrying rates of 3%, 4% or less.
Selling that home can mean giving up an extremely cheap mortgage and replacing it with one above 7%.
That creates what economists call the lock-in effect.
Homeowners don't want to sell.
Fewer homes enter the market.
Buyers have fewer choices.
And limited inventory can help keep home prices elevated even as high mortgage rates suppress demand.
That leaves prospective buyers trapped between two affordability problems:
Expensive houses.
And expensive money needed to buy them.
Builders Are Trying to Make the Math Work
Homebuilders have increasingly resorted to incentives to keep buyers coming through the door.
Some are offering mortgage-rate buydowns.
Others are reducing prices or providing seller concessions.
Lennar recently reported average sales incentives of approximately 12% during its third quarter.
These incentives can temporarily make a home more affordable.
But they don't change the underlying national mortgage market.
And the latest application numbers show that many Americans are simply stepping away.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications have fallen to their slowest weekly pace since 2025.
The Promise and the Reality
None of this means Donald Trump personally determines the mortgage rate appearing on a homebuyer's loan estimate.
He doesn't.
Global financial markets are far larger and more complicated than any president.
But that's also why the original promise matters.
Trump didn't merely promise to pursue policies that might eventually put downward pressure on borrowing costs.
He told Americans what he believed the result would be:
3% mortgages — perhaps even lower.
Instead, nearly two years after that statement, the average 30-year mortgage stands at 7.28%.
Higher than when Trump returned to office.
Higher than one year ago.
And the highest level in nearly three years.
For someone borrowing $400,000, the difference between Trump's promised 3% mortgage and today's 7.28% mortgage is roughly $1,050 every month.
That's the number prospective homebuyers ultimately have to live with.
Campaign promises are measured in words.
Mortgages are measured in monthly payments.