President Donald Trump has fallen below 30 percent job approval in a new national poll, marking another troubling sign for the White House as Republicans head toward the 2026 midterm elections.

The latest survey from American Research Group puts Trump's job approval at just 29 percent, while 68 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as president.

That leaves Trump with a staggering net approval rating of minus 39 points.

The survey, conducted September 16–20, represents an especially poor result for a president who has already spent much of 2026 struggling with negative public opinion.

One Poll — But Part of a Much Bigger Problem

The 29 percent figure should be viewed in context. It is a single poll, and other national surveys have measured Trump's support somewhat higher.

But those polls aren't exactly delivering good news for the White House either.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted September 11–14 found Trump's approval rating at 35 percent, up slightly from a previous Reuters/Ipsos low of 33 percent.

CBS News/YouGov measured Trump's approval at 39 percent earlier in September.

In other words, the exact number varies considerably depending on the pollster, but the larger picture has remained remarkably consistent: considerably more Americans disapprove of Trump's performance than approve of it.

The American Research Group survey simply takes that trend to a new extreme.

The Midterms Are Getting Closer

The timing could hardly be worse for Republicans.

The November midterm elections are approaching, and Trump has deliberately placed himself at the center of the Republican campaign.

At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Trump urged voters to treat the election as a referendum on his presidency. That strategy could make his declining popularity especially important for Republican candidates attempting to hold control of Congress.

Some Republicans have already expressed concerns about making the election so heavily dependent on Trump, particularly among independent and swing voters.

And there are signs that the political environment has become increasingly difficult for the GOP.

The September Reuters/Ipsos poll found Democrats leading Republicans 44 percent to 37 percent when Americans were asked which party's candidate they would support for Congress.

The Economy and Iran Loom Large

Trump's decline has come during a turbulent period for his administration.

Americans continue to express concerns about inflation and the cost of living, while the war with Iran has created another major political liability for the White House.

The conflict has disrupted oil supplies and contributed to higher fuel costs, bringing foreign policy decisions directly into Americans' household budgets.

Trump has also faced criticism over tariffs, his handling of immigration, controversial construction projects in Washington and an increasingly confrontational relationship with the press.

Any one of those issues might normally present a political challenge.

Together, they have created a difficult environment for a president whose approval numbers were already underwater.

A Warning Sign for Republicans

No single poll determines where public opinion truly stands, and Trump's actual national approval rating should not be assumed to be exactly 29 percent.

But Republicans cannot easily dismiss the broader trend.

Trump is underwater across numerous national surveys. Reuters/Ipsos recently recorded the lowest approval rating of his second term before its latest survey showed a modest two-point recovery.

Now American Research Group has produced an even more dramatic number.

Twenty-nine percent.

For the first time, a national poll has pushed Trump's approval into the 20s.

With the midterm elections approaching and Trump asking Americans to make November a referendum on his presidency, Republicans may soon find out just how consequential those numbers have become.