The United States has now spent or incurred an estimated $43.6 billion in military costs from the war with Iran — and that figure doesn't include some of the expenses that could eventually add billions more to the bill.
The latest estimate comes directly from U.S. Central Command and covers operations through September 3.
The Pentagon's accounting breaks the $43.6 billion into three major categories:
* $28.1 billion to replace munitions already used
* $11.2 billion in additional operating expenses
* $4.3 billion to replace equipment lost or damaged
Those figures alone illustrate the enormous cost of sustaining modern warfare.
But $43.6 billion isn't necessarily the final bill.
It isn't even the final bill for what has already happened.
Nearly Two-Thirds Is Weapons
The largest expense isn't troops or fuel.
It's ammunition.
CENTCOM estimates that replacing weapons expended during the conflict will cost approximately $28.1 billion.
Just one month earlier, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the munitions bill at $21.7 billion.
That means the estimated replacement cost increased by more than $6 billion in roughly a month.
Missile-defense interceptors and long-range strike weapons have been among the particularly expensive items consumed during the fighting.
And unlike ordinary ammunition, many of these weapons cannot simply be replaced overnight.
A Pentagon inspector general report warned that the conflict has created “strategic inventory shortfalls” in some munitions and exposed bottlenecks in America's ability to manufacture replacements.
The Congressional Budget Office has warned that replenishing some depleted inventories could take at least five years.
Then There Is the Equipment
CENTCOM estimates another $4.3 billion will be required to replace equipment lost or damaged.
American aircraft and drones have been among the losses.
A Pentagon watchdog reported that dozens of U.S. aircraft were damaged or destroyed during the conflict.
The losses included fighter aircraft, refueling tankers and MQ-9 Reaper drones.
And that $4.3 billion estimate could still change as damage assessments continue.
What Isn't Included?
This is where the $43.6 billion figure becomes even more significant.
The Pentagon estimate does not fully account for the cost of repairing or replacing U.S. military facilities damaged by Iranian attacks across the Middle East.
Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of structures at American facilities in countries including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan, according to a Pentagon inspector general report.
The eventual cost of repairing those facilities could run into billions of dollars.
U.S. diplomatic facilities have also suffered damage.
The State Department estimated approximately $184 million in physical damage to diplomatic facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The State Department has incurred additional expenses evacuating Americans and government personnel from the region.
Those costs aren't all represented in the Pentagon's $43.6 billion figure.
And the Meter Is Still Running
The Congressional Budget Office released its own analysis just days before CENTCOM's updated figure.
CBO estimated that the Defense Department had incurred approximately $38 billion in costs through August 1.
More important is what CBO believes happens next.
If combat remains relatively limited, the agency estimates the war could continue costing approximately:
$2 billion per month.
If fighting returns to the intensity seen during heavier periods of the conflict:
$3 billion per month.
That means another six months could potentially add roughly $12 billion to $18 billion in direct Defense Department costs if conditions remain within the ranges CBO analyzed.
A full additional year at those rates would represent roughly $24 billion to $36 billion more.
And those figures still wouldn't necessarily capture every economic consequence of the war.
Americans Are Paying in Other Ways
The military budget isn't the only place where the conflict is being felt.
Disruption to oil production and shipping in the Middle East has contributed to sharply higher energy prices.
The national average price of diesel reached $6.285 per gallon for the week ending September 14, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Those fuel costs don't remain at the gas station.
Farmers pay more to operate tractors and combines.
Trucking companies pay more to move freight.
Construction companies pay more to operate heavy equipment.
Businesses pay more to transport products.
Eventually, some portion of those costs can work its way into the prices consumers pay.
CBO has separately concluded that the conflict's economic disruptions are contributing to inflation.
Those indirect economic effects aren't represented by simply writing "$43.6 billion" on the Pentagon's ledger.
America's Weapons Stockpile Is Part of the Cost
There is another consequence that is more difficult to express in dollars.
Weapons fired at Iran can't simultaneously be available for another conflict.
The Pentagon inspector general found that the war has produced shortages in some strategic munitions and exposed limitations in America's defense-industrial capacity.
Manufacturers can't instantly produce sophisticated missile-defense interceptors.
Factories need specialized components.
They need rocket motors.
They need explosives and propellants.
They need skilled workers.
Production lines can be expanded, but that takes time.
The Pentagon has disputed suggestions that the United States lacks the weapons necessary to meet its military requirements. The administration says American forces retain the capabilities needed to carry out the president's objectives.
The inspector general's findings nevertheless show that replenishing what has already been used is now a significant military and financial undertaking.
From $38 Billion to $43.6 Billion
Perhaps the easiest way to understand the trajectory is simply to look at the estimates.
CBO calculated approximately $38 billion through August 1.
CENTCOM's newer accounting reached $43.6 billion by September 3.
That is an increase of approximately $5.6 billion in a little over a month, although the estimates use somewhat different methodologies.
And the war is continuing.
$43.6 Billion — So Far
There are legitimate national-security arguments surrounding Iran, its military capabilities, its nuclear program and the threat it poses to American forces and U.S. allies in the Middle East.
Supporters of the administration's strategy argue that military action is necessary to protect American interests and prevent a greater threat from developing.
The administration has also argued that maintaining an overwhelmingly capable military ultimately helps deter America's adversaries.
Those arguments don't eliminate the financial cost.
As of September 3, the Pentagon's latest estimate was:
$43.6 billion.
More than $28 billion of that is needed just to replace weapons already fired.
Another $4.3 billion represents lost or damaged equipment.
Billions more have gone toward conducting the operation itself.
Damage to American military installations isn't yet fully included.
Additional economic effects extend far beyond the Pentagon.
And according to the Congressional Budget Office, every additional month could add another $2 billion to $3 billion to the military bill.
So $43.6 billion isn't the cost of the Iran war.
It's the cost so far.