The price of oil has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past year, and American consumers are increasingly feeling the consequences.
In September 2025, Brent crude — one of the world's most important benchmarks for oil prices — was trading at roughly $68 a barrel.
One year later, it has been trading above $100.
Brent settled at $104.87 a barrel on September 18, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $100.30.
Compared with Brent prices around this time last year, that represents an increase of more than 50 percent.
For an administration that came into office promising lower prices and greater energy affordability, it is a striking reversal.
From About $68 to More Than $100
The numbers illustrate just how dramatically the energy market has changed.
During the week ending September 19, 2025, Brent crude averaged $68.33 per barrel.
By September 18, 2026, Brent futures were at $104.87.
That's an increase of approximately 54 percent.
Oil has fluctuated considerably along the way. Prices have risen and fallen as traders responded to changes in supply, military developments, shipping disruptions and the possibility of diplomatic negotiations.
But the broader comparison remains difficult to ignore:
Oil costs dramatically more than it did a year ago.
The Iran War Changed the Equation
A major factor has been the continuing conflict involving the United States and Iran and the resulting disruption to oil transportation throughout the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy chokepoints on Earth. A significant share of the world's petroleum passes through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea.
Military conflict and attacks on shipping have made moving oil through the region more difficult and more expensive.
The problems have spread beyond Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, an important alternative route allowing Saudi oil to reach the Red Sea without passing through Hormuz, has also suffered attacks. Disruptions at the Saudi export hub at Yanbu have added further pressure.
The result has been uncertainty surrounding some of the world's most important oil-export routes.
And uncertainty in the Middle East carries a price.
Americans Pay the Price Far Beyond the Gas Pump
When oil becomes more expensive, the consequences don't stop at the neighborhood gas station.
Oil is woven throughout the modern economy.
Diesel fuels the trucks that move groceries and consumer products across the country. Jet fuel affects airline operating costs. Petroleum is used in manufacturing, plastics, chemicals and countless other products.
Higher transportation and production expenses can eventually work their way into the prices consumers pay.
The latest increases are particularly significant because the Federal Reserve is still dealing with inflation.
Expensive energy can make that fight considerably more difficult.
Another Problem for Trump's Affordability Promises
President Donald Trump does not set the world price of oil.
Oil prices are determined by global markets influenced by production, consumption, inventories, OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical risk, refinery capacity and numerous other factors.
But presidential decisions involving war, sanctions, trade and foreign policy can affect those markets.
The Trump administration renewed restrictions on Iranian oil exports, and the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict has contributed to disruptions and uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern oil supplies and shipping routes.
That makes the rise in oil prices politically significant.
Trump returned to office promising Americans lower costs.
Instead, a barrel of Brent crude that cost roughly $68 around this time last year recently cost more than $100.
The Ripple Effect
The danger for American households isn't simply the number displayed on an oil-market trading screen.
It's what happens afterward.
More expensive crude can mean more expensive gasoline.
More expensive diesel can mean higher transportation costs.
Higher transportation costs can contribute to higher prices for goods.
Higher energy prices can add to inflation.
Persistent inflation can put upward pressure on interest rates and borrowing costs.
That means the consequences can eventually reach Americans who never think about the price of a barrel of Brent crude.
The oil market is global, complicated and influenced by forces far beyond any single president.
But one number is remarkably simple.
About a year ago, Brent crude was around $68 a barrel.
Now it has been trading above $100.
For American consumers waiting for the cost of living to come down, that is a trend worth watching.