Vice President JD Vance has a warning for Americans.
If Democrats win control of Congress in November, energy prices will “skyrocket.”
There's just one problem with that argument.
Have you looked at a gas station lately?
Americans are already paying some of the highest gasoline prices they've ever faced at this time of year.
The national average for regular gasoline stood at approximately $4.41 per gallon on October 1, according to AAA.
September set a record for the most expensive September at the pump, averaging $4.33 per gallon nationally.
Reuters reported an even higher September average of approximately $4.43, compared with roughly $3.20 one year earlier.
Diesel prices have been even more painful.
And all of this is happening right now.
Not under a hypothetical Democratic Congress.
Not under Joe Biden.
Not under some future Democratic president.
Under Donald Trump.
Vance Warns Prices Will “Skyrocket”
Appearing with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Vance laid out what he believes will happen if Democrats take control of Congress.
“If the Democrats win, here's what's going to happen,” Vance said.
He predicted congressional investigations, worsening crime and other consequences.
Then came energy.
“You're gonna have American energy prices skyrocket because they will go to war against American coal, oil and natural gas.”
It's an effective political warning.
At least until someone drives past a gas station.
Energy prices have already skyrocketed.
$4.41 a Gallon
AAA reported October 1 that regular gasoline was averaging $4.41 nationally.
That was actually down about seven cents from the previous week.
That's the good news.
Here's the bad news:
AAA says gasoline prices remain the highest they've ever been for this time of year.
September's national monthly average was $4.33.
The previous September record was $3.83, set in 2023.
So when Vance warns Americans about what Democrats might do to energy prices sometime in the future, millions of Americans are currently standing at gas pumps watching the numbers spin upward under the Trump administration.
That doesn't mean Trump personally determines the price displayed at every gas station.
Presidents don't.
Global oil markets are complicated.
Refinery capacity matters.
Inventories matter.
International demand matters.
Wars matter.
Shipping matters.
But Republicans didn't spend four years offering Joe Biden those qualifications.
They blamed him.
Repeatedly.
Remember “I Did That”?
During the Biden administration, Republicans relentlessly connected the president to gasoline prices.
Republican politicians attacked Biden when gasoline climbed.
Conservative media blamed Biden.
Trump blamed Biden.
Drivers even placed stickers of Biden pointing toward gas-pump prices with the words:
“I did that!”
The message was unmistakable.
The president owns gasoline prices.
Now Trump is president.
Gasoline is above $4 nationally.
And suddenly the explanation is considerably more complicated.
Now Americans are told to consider international markets.
Now they're told about shipping disruptions.
Now they're told about Iran.
Now they're told prices could have been even worse.
All of those factors can genuinely affect gasoline prices.
But they affected gasoline prices when Biden was president too.
You don't get to establish one standard for the other party and another for yourself.
Trump's Iran War Changed Everything
The biggest factor driving today's extraordinary fuel prices is the continuing war with Iran.
The conflict has disrupted Middle Eastern oil production and transportation and created persistent uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy chokepoints on Earth.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration says global oil inventories have fallen sharply during 2026 while Middle Eastern production remains constrained by the conflict.
The result has been higher crude-oil prices.
And eventually those prices reach American consumers.
At the gas pump.
Through diesel prices.
Through airline tickets.
Through shipping.
Through agriculture.
And eventually through the price of almost everything transported by truck.
Vance himself acknowledged this connection in September.
Asked why Americans shouldn't blame Republicans for high gasoline and energy prices, Vance said the fundamental reason gasoline was so expensive was fighting involving Iran and attacks on commercial shipping.
That explanation contains an important truth.
The Iran conflict is driving energy prices higher.
But Donald Trump is also president of the United States.
His administration made the decisions that brought the United States into the conflict and continues directing America's involvement in it.
The administration cannot simultaneously take credit for America's energy policy while treating the consequences of its foreign policy as somebody else's responsibility.
Diesel May Be Even Worse
Gasoline gets most of the political attention because consumers see the price displayed on giant signs every day.
Diesel may ultimately matter even more.
Diesel powers trucks.
Farm equipment.
Construction machinery.
Delivery vehicles.
Much of the machinery responsible for moving products through the American economy depends on diesel fuel.
When diesel becomes extraordinarily expensive, consumers don't simply pay more when filling a diesel pickup.
Transportation companies pay more.
Farmers pay more.
Businesses pay more.
Those costs eventually appear somewhere else.
Food.
Construction.
Consumer goods.
Shipping.
Delivery.
Inflation doesn't stop at the fuel pump.
Vance Says Democrats Would Make It Worse
Vance's argument is that Democratic energy policies would restrict domestic fossil-fuel production and therefore increase prices further.
That's a political argument voters can evaluate.
Democrats generally favor a faster transition toward renewable energy and stronger environmental restrictions than Republicans.
Republicans generally favor greater oil, natural-gas and coal development.
Those differences are real.
But there is another fact voters can evaluate:
Republicans currently control the White House.
Trump has aggressively promoted what he calls American “energy dominance.”
His administration has encouraged fossil-fuel production.
It has pushed expanded drilling.
It has reduced environmental restrictions.
And Americans are still paying more than $4 per gallon for gasoline.
Why?
Because presidents cannot simply order global energy prices downward.
Which is precisely what critics said when Republicans blamed Biden for every increase at the pump.
“Don't Gripe About All the Little Things”
Vance's comments become even more striking in the context of another remark he made while discussing the midterms.
He complained that voters shouldn't focus excessively on what he characterized as “little things.”
But gasoline isn't a little thing to a family driving two cars to work every day.
Electricity isn't a little thing when the utility bill arrives.
Diesel isn't a little thing to a farmer.
Groceries aren't a little thing.
Housing isn't a little thing.
Insurance isn't a little thing.
These are the expenses that determine whether families have money left at the end of the month.
And recent polling suggests Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with how the Trump administration is handling those costs.
Only 17% Approve on Cost of Living
The political danger for Republicans becomes obvious when the energy numbers are combined with current polling.
A new AP-NORC poll finds only 17% of American adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living.
Only 26% approve of his handling of the economy.
And 65% say Trump's policies bear more responsibility for persistently high prices than factors outside his control.
Those numbers help explain Vance's urgency.
Republicans have a month before the midterm elections.
Voters are angry about prices.
Gasoline is expensive.
Diesel is expensive.
And Republicans need to convince those voters that the solution is keeping Republicans in power.
So Vance is asking voters to worry about what Democrats might do next year.
The opposition can respond with a much simpler question:
What are you doing about the prices we're paying today?
Energy Prices Can Actually Get Worse
It would be tempting to say energy prices couldn't possibly get worse.
Unfortunately, they can.
That's what makes the current situation particularly dangerous.
The Energy Information Administration has warned that constraints on Middle Eastern oil exports could persist through the end of 2026.
The agency expects some disruptions to continue into 2027.
A further escalation with Iran could push oil prices higher.
Additional shipping disruptions could increase them.
Refinery outages could increase them.
Lower global production could increase them.
That means Americans aren't merely paying historically high autumn gasoline prices.
They're doing so while significant risks remain that could push prices higher still.
Vance's warning about future energy costs therefore isn't inherently absurd.
What's remarkable is his attempt to make the warning exclusively about Democrats.
Republicans Own the Government They Are Running
There comes a point when an administration has to take responsibility for conditions occurring during its administration.
Donald Trump has been president since January 2025.
JD Vance has been vice president since January 2025.
Republicans have controlled federal policymaking.
The administration has implemented its energy agenda.
It has implemented its trade agenda.
It has implemented its foreign policy.
And America is now paying historically high autumn gasoline prices.
Not every dollar of that increase is Trump's fault.
Not every increase in electricity prices is Trump's fault.
Not every movement in the global oil market is Trump's fault.
But none of those things were entirely Biden's fault either.
Republicans insisted presidents should be judged by what Americans pay at the pump.
Fine.
Let's use their standard.
Look at the Sign at the Gas Station
Vance wants Americans thinking about what might happen if Democrats win Congress.
That's understandable.
He's campaigning.
But Americans don't need a political prediction to understand their energy costs.
They can look at the giant illuminated sign outside virtually any gas station.
National gasoline average:
About $4.41 per gallon.
September:
The most expensive September at the pump on record.
Last September:
Roughly $3.20 per gallon, according to Reuters.
Those numbers aren't projections.
They're not Democratic talking points.
They're prices Americans are paying during the Trump administration.
So when JD Vance warns voters that Democrats could make energy prices “skyrocket,” Americans might reasonably respond:
Skyrocket from here?
Because before Republicans start frightening voters about tomorrow's energy prices, they have some explaining to do about today's.
Source: AAA, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Associated Press, Reuters and contemporary reporting.