A new Fox News poll showing Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race produced a remarkable reaction Friday morning—from a Fox News host herself.
Fox & Friends co-host Ainsley Earhardt appeared stunned while discussing the network's polling with conservative commentator Clay Travis.
Looking at Talarico's advantage among registered voters, Earhardt asked a remarkably simple question:
"How is that possible?"
It's a reasonable question considering the state involved.
This is Texas.
Donald Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Republicans haven't lost a statewide election there in decades.
Yet weeks before the 2026 midterm election, Fox News' own polling shows a Democrat with a measurable lead among registered voters and a narrow advantage among those considered most likely to actually vote.
Talarico Leads by Seven Among Registered Voters
The Fox News poll found Talarico leading Paxton by seven percentage points among registered Texas voters.
That advantage has grown from three points in Fox's July polling.
The race becomes considerably closer when Fox looks specifically at likely voters.
Among that group:
James Talarico: 51%
Ken Paxton: 49%
That two-point difference falls within the poll's three-point margin of sampling error for likely voters, meaning the survey does not establish a clear leader among those expected to vote.
Still, the fact that a Democratic Senate candidate is effectively tied—or slightly ahead—in Texas is itself noteworthy.
And Earhardt clearly thought so.
‘How Is That Possible?’
During Friday's Fox & Friends, Earhardt turned to Travis after displaying the polling.
"If you look at that Fox News poll, he's ahead by seven points in the state of Texas," Earhardt said.
Then came the question:
"How is that possible?"
Travis warned that Republicans couldn't simply assume Texas would remain safely Republican because of its political history.
He argued that Democratic enthusiasm and campaign spending had made the contest competitive and urged Republican voters to recognize the possibility that Democrats could win.
His response highlighted one of the biggest dangers Republicans face in Texas this year:
Complacency.
After decades of Republican statewide victories, voters accustomed to seeing Texas as automatically Republican may have little sense of urgency.
Democrats appear to have plenty.
Talarico Has a Major Favorability Advantage
The headline polling numbers aren't the only problem for Paxton.
Fox found a striking difference in how Texas voters personally view the two candidates.
Talarico's favorability rating was:
52% favorable
44% unfavorable
That gives him a net positive rating of eight points.
Paxton's numbers were dramatically different:
40% favorable
58% unfavorable
That leaves the Republican nominee 18 points underwater.
Even Republicans aren't completely united behind him.
Fox found Republicans were substantially more likely to view Paxton unfavorably than Democrats were to have an unfavorable view of Talarico.
Some voters who supported Republican Sen. John Cornyn during the GOP primary have also moved toward Talarico.
Among likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March Republican primary, 20% now support Talarico, according to Fox.
That crossover support could matter enormously in a close election.
Trump's Numbers Aren't Helping
There is another number in the Fox poll that helps explain Earhardt's question.
Trump won Texas comfortably in 2024.
Two years later, his job approval rating in the state is underwater.
Fox found:
44% approve of Trump's performance.
55% disapprove.
That's an 11-point negative gap in a state Trump carried by almost 14 points just two years ago.
The poll doesn't establish that Trump's approval rating is responsible for Paxton's difficulties.
Paxton has his own political history and controversies, and Fox's numbers show that voters distinguish between Republican candidates.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, for example, performs better than Paxton in the same poll.
But Trump's declining approval provides important context for a Senate contest occurring during his second presidency.
Texans Say They're Falling Behind
The economy also appears to be playing a major role.
Seven in ten Texas voters told Fox that the cost of living would be extremely important to their Senate vote.
And the poll found more than twice as many voters saying they were falling behind financially as saying they were getting ahead.
Among voters who said they were falling behind, Talarico held a substantial advantage.
That creates another problem for Republicans campaigning while their party controls the White House and Congress.
Voters unhappy with their economic circumstances have someone in power to blame.
Whether that ultimately translates into votes against Paxton remains uncertain.
But the polling suggests economic frustration is already influencing the race.
Talarico Has Also Built a Financial Machine
Earhardt pointed to another explanation for Talarico's position: money.
She noted that Talarico had raised $68.6 million by June, compared with $9.2 million for Paxton at that point.
That enormous financial advantage allowed Talarico to begin spending heavily on television advertising while Republicans were still recovering from a bruising primary fight.
Republicans have responded with substantial spending of their own.
Earhardt referenced a recently announced $122 million Republican advertising blitz intended to help close the gap.
Travis argued that Republican money arriving late in the campaign could change the race.
That may happen.
But it also demonstrates how dramatically the political environment has changed when Republicans must spend enormous sums defending a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.
Fox Personalities Have Struggled With Their Own Poll
Earhardt isn't the first prominent Fox personality to react skeptically to the network's Texas numbers.
Sean Hannity previously rejected another Fox poll showing Talarico ahead.
"I don't believe it for two seconds," Hannity said in September.
Now Fox's latest survey again shows Talarico ahead.
And this time the reaction came from the network's morning show.
"How is that possible?"
The answer appears to be a combination of factors rather than one simple explanation.
Talarico has raised enormous amounts of money.
Paxton has substantial unfavorable ratings.
Some Republican voters remain divided following the GOP primary.
Democratic voters appear highly motivated.
Many Texans say they're struggling financially.
And Trump's approval rating in a state he won easily two years ago has fallen underwater.
None of that determines what will happen on Election Day.
Polls are snapshots rather than predictions, and the Fox survey's two-point likely-voter margin is statistically too close to establish a leader.
Texas may ultimately vote exactly as Republicans expect it to.
But the remarkable part of the Fox News poll isn't that it proves Democrats will win Texas.
It doesn't.
The remarkable part is that, with Election Day approaching, Fox News is measuring a Texas Senate race close enough that one of its own hosts looked at the numbers and asked how it was even possible.