For a Republican governor seeking a fourth term in Texas, this is not the kind of poll Greg Abbott wanted to see seven weeks before Election Day.

A new ReconMR/Siena Research Institute poll of likely Texas voters puts Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa at 49 percent, with Abbott trailing at 45 percent.

That's a four-point Democratic lead in Texas.

And while one poll does not determine an election — particularly one with a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points — the movement in this particular polling series is difficult to ignore.

In late July, the same pollster found Abbott narrowly ahead, 46 percent to 45 percent.

Now Hinojosa is four points ahead.

For a three-term Republican governor running in a state the GOP has dominated statewide for decades, simply finding himself behind a Democrat this close to Election Day is a significant development.

Abbott's Advantage Has Evaporated in This Poll

The headline number is bad enough for Abbott.

The numbers underneath it may be even more concerning.

Among independent and other-party voters, the ReconMR/Siena poll found Hinojosa leading Abbott 65 percent to 27 percent.

That's a 38-point advantage.

Hinojosa also leads among Latino voters, Black voters and college graduates, while Abbott maintains advantages among white voters and Texans without college degrees.

This isn't merely a Democrat consolidating Democratic voters.

In this survey, Hinojosa is winning overwhelmingly among voters who don't identify with either major party.

Texans Give Hinojosa the Edge on Affordability

The poll also asked voters which candidate they trusted on major issues.

Abbott retains clear strengths.

Texas voters give him the advantage on border issues and public safety — two subjects that have been central to his political identity.

But Hinojosa leads Abbott on affordability, an issue that reaches directly into Texans' household budgets.

She also holds the advantage on water issues.

That matters because the economy has become the dominant concern for many Texas voters. A separate Emerson College/Nexstar poll released this month found 36 percent of Texas voters named the economy as their most important issue, well ahead of immigration at 14 percent.

For an incumbent governor, voters' concerns about affordability can be particularly difficult to escape. After more than a decade in office, Abbott isn't campaigning as an outsider promising to fix someone else's government.

He's defending his own record.

The Personal Numbers Aren't Much Better

The Siena poll contains another warning sign for Abbott.

Majorities of voters described Hinojosa as both honest and authentic.

Majorities did not say the same about Abbott.

At the same time, voters regarded both candidates as qualified and viewed both as being in touch with Texas values.

That combination is important.

Hinojosa isn't simply benefiting from dissatisfaction with Abbott in this survey. Voters are also increasingly seeing her as a credible alternative to him.

And Abbott has something Hinojosa doesn't: more than a decade of gubernatorial decisions for voters to judge.

Abbott first became governor in January 2015.

By Election Day, Texans won't be deciding whether to give an unfamiliar Republican a chance to run their state.

They'll be deciding whether Greg Abbott deserves another four years after nearly twelve years already in office.

This Isn't the Only Poll

There is an important qualification.

Other recent surveys do not show Abbott behind.

An Emerson College/Nexstar poll conducted Sept. 12–14 has Abbott leading Hinojosa 49 percent to 46 percent.

Recent Texas polling has ranged from Abbott leads to a tie to the new four-point Hinojosa advantage.

So the Siena result should not be interpreted as proof that Abbott will lose in November.

It does establish something much simpler:

Greg Abbott is trailing a Democrat in a major statewide poll less than two months before Texans vote.

And that's notable in Texas.

A Race Abbott Once Had Little Reason to Fear

Earlier polling looked considerably more comfortable for the governor.

The ReconMR polling series itself illustrates the movement.

In early June, Abbott led Hinojosa 49–43.

By late July, that advantage had shrunk to 46–45.

Now it's Hinojosa 49, Abbott 45.

That's a ten-point movement in the margin across three surveys from the same polling operation.

Other pollsters haven't measured a shift that dramatic, which is another reason to treat any individual survey cautiously.

But virtually nobody looking at the public polling can describe this as the kind of comfortable reelection campaign an incumbent Republican governor of Texas might ordinarily expect.

Abbott Now Has to Defend His Record

After three terms, Abbott has had years to shape Texas government around his priorities.

He has made immigration and the southern border defining issues of his administration. He signed one of the nation's most restrictive abortion laws. He championed private-school vouchers. He has repeatedly clashed with the federal government and made Texas a centerpiece of national conservative politics.

Those positions have helped make Abbott one of the country's most prominent Republican governors.

Now Texas voters are deciding what they think of the results.

The Siena poll doesn't tell us who will become Texas governor in November.

No poll can.

But it does tell us something remarkable about where the campaign stands today.

After nearly twelve years in the governor's mansion, Greg Abbott isn't cruising toward another term.

In one of the newest statewide polls, he's four points behind.